Republicans are in a bad situation. According to Gallup, President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a historic low of 36%, mirroring President Bush’s 34% before the 2006 election. Among independents, his 25% approval number is comparable to President Nixon’s 24% overall post-Watergate.
The multiracial, working-class coalition that delivered President Trump a second term has fragmented. To borrow a quote from an anonymous national GOP operative, there are “fires everywhere.”
The Ten Major Senate Battlegrounds:
There are other competitive races this cycle, but I’ve decided to compile specific, margin-based predictions for the ten above.
Alaska: Peltola +3
Peltola 51.5%
Sen. Sullivan 48.5%
Peltola’s 11-point overperformance relative to Harris in 2024, Alaska’s blue-trending electorate (a 20-point shift left from 2000 to 2020), and the broader political environment have elevated her into frontrunner status. Incumbent Sen. Sullivan, meanwhile, is hoping late-breaking Peltola scandals will help him turn the race around.
Iowa: Turek +1
Turek 49.5%
Hinson 48.5%
Others 2%
Turek and Hinson were both strong overperformers in 2024, by 13 and 7 points, respectively. But Trump’s tariffs have had an outsized impact across the Great Plains, and Democrats’ likely victory in the state’s gubernatorial race should be enough to push Turek over the finish line.
Kansas: Hamilton +1.5
Hamilton 49%
Sen. Marshall 47.5%
Others 3.5%
Sen. Marshall’s fresh scandals and repeated gaffes have left charismatic megachurch pastor Hamilton with an opening in left-trending Kansas, aided by state-specific backlash to Trump’s sweeping tariff policy, the Iran War, and the blue environment.
Maine: Jackson +6
Jackson 53%
Sen. Collins 47%
Sen. Collins had no room for slippage this year, after winning just 51% of the vote in 2020. However, her falling favorability brought on by costly votes in Congress and Maine’s partisan lean have proven too much to handle in an environment dominated by opposition to President Trump. The polls may have underestimated her last time, but have overcorrected since.
Michigan: El-Sayed +6
El-Sayed 52%
Rogers 46%
Others 2%
Sen. Peter’s retirement led Michigan Democrats to nominate progressive El-Sayed in a race to shatter traditional coalition-building. Rogers, who lost in 2024, is back to try to defy national headwinds again (in the other direction). Unfortunately for him, the blue environment mixed with Trump’s cratering favorability seems just too steep a hill to climb.
Mississippi: Hyde-Smith +6
Sen. Hyde-Smith 51%
Colom 45%
Others 4%
Sen. Hyde-Smith has never won Mississippi by more than 10 points, even as Trump carried it by 16.5 in 2020. A viral gaffe, surging Black turnout since the Voting Rights Act was gutted, and a strong, well-funded challenger in Colom have made this race far closer than expected.
Nebraska: Ricketts +4
Sen. Ricketts 51.5%
Osborn 47.5%
Others 1%
Back-to-back independent campaigns have certainly tarnished the Osborn brand, even if it is poised for yet another significant overperformance. But to actually win, overcoming Nebraska’s Republican lean against a self-funded, competent candidate in Ricketts is underdog talk.
Ohio: Brown +3
Brown 50.5%
Sen. Husted 47.5%
Others 2%
After losing by 3 in 2024 after outperforming Harris by 8, Brown has run an absolutely vicious campaign this cycle, casting appointed Sen. Husted as a Data Center and Epstein cheerleader. By tanking his opponent’s favorability while flexing his legacy relationship with the working class amid Trump’s low approval, Brown finds himself in the driver’s seat.
South Carolina: Graham +4.5
Graham 51.5%
Andrews 47%
Others 1.5%
Appointed Sen. Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, has had a rocky start to her political career: foreign-policy gaffes, post-primary party divisions, and surging Black turnout have turned a once sleepy race into a real deal.
Texas: Talarico +4
Talarico 50.5%
Paxton 46.5%
Others 3%
Sen. Cornyn’s primary defeat at the hands of Paxton, the state’s scandal-ridden Attorney General, left $100M of negative attack ads thrown at the state’s top law enforcement officer, while Texas Democrats, avoiding a runoff and nominating the telegenic Talarico, dumped another $60M unopposed. Narrative control, Paxton’s fundamentally flawed candidacy, and Hispanic reversion fueled by Trump’s historically low rating give Talarico the upper hand in a race that has become the cycle’s marquee contest.
Senate Map By Margin
Tilt: 0-1.0% Lean: 1.1%-5.0% Likely: 5.1%-15.0% Safe: 15%+
Governor Map By Margin
Tilt: 0-1.0% Lean: 1.1%-5.0% Likely: 5.1%-15.0% Safe: 15%+
House Map By Margin
Tilt: 0-1.0% Lean: 1.1%-5.0% Likely: 5.1%-15.0% Safe: 15%
Good stuff! Haven't seen many people willing to make a bold call on Maine and Kansas like that. Seems like a lot of pollsters are relying on Maine resisting the blue wave.